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Groningen vs AEK Athens FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Groningen
Groningen
Preview
12:00
AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
55%
AEK Athens FC
model favours
22%23%55%

Groningen score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Groningen22%
×Draw23%
AEK Athens FC55%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen
1.08
AEK Athens FC
1.83

AEK Athens FC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Groningen
1.50
AEK Athens FC
1.67

allows per match

Groningen
2.00
AEK Athens FC
0.67

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par
AEK Athens FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

AEK Athens FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Groningen or draw
45%
Groningen or AEK Athens FC
77%
Draw or AEK Athens FC
78%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+
8%
AEK Athens FC wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals
66%
Groningen 2+ goals
29%
Groningen 3+ goals
10%
AEK Athens FC 1+ goals
84%
AEK Athens FC 2+ goals
54%
AEK Athens FC 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)
29%
AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

AEK Athens FC away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 1.50 + AEK Athens FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

AEK Athens FC attack 1.67 + Groningen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Groningen scores more
22%
level
23%
AEK Athens FC scores more
55%

AEK Athens FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AEK Athens FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Groningen and AEK Athens FC have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Groningen
WLLWW
FC
DWDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Groningen face AEK Athens FC (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Groningen hosting AEK Athens FC. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.