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Groningen U21 vs PEC Zwolle U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Groningen U21
Groningen U21
FT
0 – 2
PEC Zwolle U21
PEC Zwolle U21
4/22/2023U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 10Sportpark Corpus den Hoorn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Groningen U2151%
×Draw24%
PEC Zwolle U2125%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen U21
1.75
PEC Zwolle U21
1.15

Groningen U21 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 39 away

creates per match

Groningen U21
1.88
PEC Zwolle U21
1.13

allows per match

Groningen U21
1.16
PEC Zwolle U21
1.62

finishing

Groningen U21+0.00on par
PEC Zwolle U21+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen U21 ↓

PEC Zwolle U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Groningen U21 or draw
75%
Groningen U21 or PEC Zwolle U21
76%
Draw or PEC Zwolle U21
49%

Winning margin

Groningen U21 wins by 2+
28%
PEC Zwolle U21 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Groningen U21 1+ goals
83%
Groningen U21 2+ goals
52%
Groningen U21 3+ goals
25%
PEC Zwolle U21 1+ goals
68%
PEC Zwolle U21 2+ goals
32%
PEC Zwolle U21 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Groningen U21 (draw refunded)
67%
PEC Zwolle U21 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen U21 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

PEC Zwolle U21 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen U21 attack 1.88 + PEC Zwolle U21 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.75

PEC Zwolle U21 attack 1.13 + Groningen U21 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Groningen U21 scores more
51%
level
24%
PEC Zwolle U21 scores more
25%

Groningen U21 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Groningen U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: Groningen U21 0–2 PEC Zwolle U21

PEC Zwolle U21 beat Groningen U21 2-0 in U21 Divisie 1 on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Corpus den Hoorn in Groningen.