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Groningen U21 vs NEC U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Groningen U21
Groningen U21
CANC
14:00
NEC U21
NEC U21
11/21/2020U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Round 11Sportpark Corpus den Hoorn veld 7 GG/FCG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Groningen U2153%
×Draw22%
NEC U2125%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen U21
1.99
NEC U21
1.29

Groningen U21 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 19 away

creates per match

Groningen U21
1.88
NEC U21
1.42

allows per match

Groningen U21
1.16
NEC U21
2.11

finishing

Groningen U21+0.00on par
NEC U21+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen U21 ↓

NEC U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Groningen U21 or draw
75%
Groningen U21 or NEC U21
78%
Draw or NEC U21
47%

Winning margin

Groningen U21 wins by 2+
31%
NEC U21 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Groningen U21 1+ goals
86%
Groningen U21 2+ goals
59%
Groningen U21 3+ goals
32%
NEC U21 1+ goals
72%
NEC U21 2+ goals
37%
NEC U21 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Groningen U21 (draw refunded)
68%
NEC U21 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen U21 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

NEC U21 away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen U21 attack 1.88 + NEC U21 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.99

NEC U21 attack 1.42 + Groningen U21 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Groningen U21 scores more
53%
level
22%
NEC U21 scores more
25%

Groningen U21 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Groningen U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Groningen U21 vs NEC U21 — Match Preview

Groningen U21 face NEC U21 on November 21, 2020 in this U21 Divisie 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Groningen U21 host NEC U21 at Sportpark Corpus den Hoorn veld 7 GG/FCG.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.