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Groningen U21 vs NAC U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Groningen U21
Groningen U21
FT
1 – 2
NAC U21
NAC U21
10/2/2021U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 5Sportpark Corpus den Hoorn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Groningen U2154%
×Draw21%
NAC U2125%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen U21
2.15
NAC U21
1.42

Groningen U21 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 26 away

creates per match

Groningen U21
1.88
NAC U21
1.69

allows per match

Groningen U21
1.16
NAC U21
2.42

finishing

Groningen U21+0.00on par
NAC U21+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen U21 ↓

NAC U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Groningen U21 or draw
75%
Groningen U21 or NAC U21
79%
Draw or NAC U21
46%

Winning margin

Groningen U21 wins by 2+
32%
NAC U21 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Groningen U21 1+ goals
88%
Groningen U21 2+ goals
63%
Groningen U21 3+ goals
36%
NAC U21 1+ goals
76%
NAC U21 2+ goals
41%
NAC U21 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Groningen U21 (draw refunded)
68%
NAC U21 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen U21 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

NAC U21 away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen U21 attack 1.88 + NAC U21 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.15

NAC U21 attack 1.69 + Groningen U21 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Groningen U21 scores more
54%
level
21%
NAC U21 scores more
25%

Groningen U21 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Groningen U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Groningen U21 vs NAC U21

NAC U21 beat Groningen U21 2-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Sportpark Corpus den Hoorn in Groningen.