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Grobiņa vs Riga — Virsliga 2026

Grobiņa
Grobiņa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Riga
Riga
3/10/2024VirsligaVirsliga · Round 1Stadions Daugava mākslīgas laukums

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Grobiņa18%
×Draw21%
Riga61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grobiņa
0.95
Riga
1.98

Riga creates 108% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 116 away

creates per match

Grobiņa
1.16
Riga
2.27

allows per match

Grobiņa
1.69
Riga
0.75

finishing

Grobiņa+0.00on par
Riga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobiņa ↓

Riga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Grobiņa or draw
39%
Grobiņa or Riga
79%
Draw or Riga
82%

Winning margin

Grobiņa wins by 2+
6%
Riga wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Grobiņa 1+ goals
61%
Grobiņa 2+ goals
25%
Grobiņa 3+ goals
7%
Riga 1+ goals
86%
Riga 2+ goals
59%
Riga 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Grobiņa (draw refunded)
22%
Riga (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobiņa at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.69 · 49 matches

Riga away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobiņa attack 1.16 + Riga defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.95

Riga attack 2.27 + Grobiņa defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Grobiņa scores more
18%
level
21%
Riga scores more
61%

Riga at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Riga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grobiņa vs Riga

Riga beat Grobiņa 1-0 in Virsliga on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadions Daugava mākslīgas laukums in Liepāja.