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Großbardorf vs Gebenbach — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Großbardorf
Großbardorf
Preview
14:00
Gebenbach
Gebenbach
5/1/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 31
46%
Gebenbach
model favours
32%22%46%

Großbardorf win just 11% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Großbardorf32%
×Draw22%
Gebenbach46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Großbardorf
1.60
Gebenbach
1.94

Gebenbach creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Großbardorf
1.59
Gebenbach
1.99

allows per match

Großbardorf
1.88
Gebenbach
1.62

finishing

Großbardorf+0.00on par
Gebenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Großbardorf ↓

Gebenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Großbardorf or draw
54%
Großbardorf or Gebenbach
78%
Draw or Gebenbach
68%

Winning margin

Großbardorf wins by 2+
15%
Gebenbach wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Großbardorf 1+ goals
80%
Großbardorf 2+ goals
47%
Großbardorf 3+ goals
22%
Gebenbach 1+ goals
86%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
58%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Großbardorf (draw refunded)
41%
Gebenbach (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Großbardorf at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Gebenbach away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Großbardorf attack 1.59 + Gebenbach defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

Gebenbach attack 1.99 + Großbardorf defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Großbardorf scores more
32%
level
22%
Gebenbach scores more
46%

Gebenbach at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Großbardorf
WWLDW
Gebenbach
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Großbardorf vs Gebenbach — Match Preview

Großbardorf face Gebenbach on May 1, 2027 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.