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Großbardorf vs Fortuna Regensburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Großbardorf
Großbardorf
Preview
14:00
Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
4/10/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 27
39%
Fortuna Regensburg
model favours
38%22%39%

Großbardorf win just 11% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Großbardorf38%
×Draw22%
Fortuna Regensburg39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Großbardorf
1.73
Fortuna Regensburg
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Großbardorf
1.59
Fortuna Regensburg
1.63

allows per match

Großbardorf
1.88
Fortuna Regensburg
1.86

finishing

Großbardorf+0.00on par
Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Großbardorf ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Großbardorf or draw
61%
Großbardorf or Fortuna Regensburg
78%
Draw or Fortuna Regensburg
62%

Winning margin

Großbardorf wins by 2+
20%
Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Großbardorf 1+ goals
82%
Großbardorf 2+ goals
52%
Großbardorf 3+ goals
25%
Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
83%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
52%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Großbardorf (draw refunded)
49%
Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Großbardorf at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Großbardorf attack 1.59 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.73

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.63 + Großbardorf defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Großbardorf scores more
38%
level
22%
Fortuna Regensburg scores more
39%

Fortuna Regensburg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Großbardorf and Fortuna Regensburg have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Großbardorf
WWLDW
Regensburg
WDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Großbardorf host Fortuna Regensburg

April 10, 2027: Großbardorf take on Fortuna Regensburg in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.