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Großbardorf vs Bayern Hof — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Großbardorf
Großbardorf
Preview
15:00
Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
3/13/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 23
40%
Bayern Hof
model favours
37%23%40%

Bayern Hof have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Großbardorf37%
×Draw23%
Bayern Hof40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Großbardorf
1.60
Bayern Hof
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Großbardorf
1.59
Bayern Hof
1.51

allows per match

Großbardorf
1.88
Bayern Hof
1.62

finishing

Großbardorf+0.00on par
Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Großbardorf ↓

Bayern Hof →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Großbardorf or draw
60%
Großbardorf or Bayern Hof
77%
Draw or Bayern Hof
63%

Winning margin

Großbardorf wins by 2+
18%
Bayern Hof wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Großbardorf 1+ goals
80%
Großbardorf 2+ goals
47%
Großbardorf 3+ goals
22%
Bayern Hof 1+ goals
82%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
50%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Großbardorf (draw refunded)
48%
Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Großbardorf at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Bayern Hof away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Großbardorf attack 1.59 + Bayern Hof defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

Bayern Hof attack 1.51 + Großbardorf defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Großbardorf scores more
37%
level
23%
Bayern Hof scores more
40%

Bayern Hof at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bayern Hof will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Großbardorf win just 11% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Großbardorf
WWLDW
Hof
DDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Großbardorf vs Bayern Hof — Match Preview

Großbardorf face Bayern Hof on March 13, 2027 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.