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Grimsby vs York — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
Preview
15:00
York
York
10/31/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 14Blundell Park
39%
Grimsby
model favours
39%27%35%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Grimsby39%
×Draw27%
York35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.32
York
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 141 home / 15 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.24
York
1.13

allows per match

Grimsby
1.34
York
1.40

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par
York+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
65%
Grimsby or York
73%
Draw or York
61%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
17%
York wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
73%
Grimsby 2+ goals
38%
Grimsby 3+ goals
15%
York 1+ goals
71%
York 2+ goals
35%
York 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
53%
York (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 141 matches

York away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.24 + York defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

York attack 1.13 + Grimsby defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Grimsby scores more
39%
level
27%
York scores more
35%

Grimsby at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • York score first in only 33% of matches
  • Grimsby and York have never met before
  • 43% of York’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Grimsby
DDWLD
York
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grimsby vs York — Match Preview

Grimsby face York on October 31, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Grimsby host York at Blundell Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.