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Grimsby vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
Preview
15:00
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
2/27/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 33Blundell Park
Big match
48%
Grimsby
model favours
48%25%27%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Grimsby48%
×Draw25%
Swindon Town27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.54
Swindon Town
1.09

Grimsby creates 41% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.62
Swindon Town
1.34

allows per match

Grimsby
0.85
Swindon Town
1.46

finishing

Grimsby+0.38scores more
Swindon Town-0.01on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
73%
Grimsby or Swindon Town
75%
Draw or Swindon Town
52%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
24%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
79%
Grimsby 2+ goals
45%
Grimsby 3+ goals
20%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
66%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
30%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
64%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.46 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Swindon Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Swindon Town attack 1.34 + Grimsby defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Grimsby scores more
48%
level
25%
Swindon Town scores more
27%

Grimsby at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Swindon Town have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Grimsby
Attack-heavy
Swindon Town
Balanced
52%Possession53%
68%Pass accuracy71%
12.6Shots12.5
1.65xGBiggest gap1.50
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GrimsbySwindon Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Grimsby
1
Draws
7
Swindon Town
Avg goals: 3.6BTTS: 50%
4–02–20–41–32–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Grimsby
DDWLD
Town
LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grimsby face Swindon Town (League Two)

League Two returns with Grimsby hosting Swindon Town. Match starts February 27, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Grimsby host Swindon Town at Blundell Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.