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Grimsby vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
12/7/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 20Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Grimsby52%
×Draw25%
Swindon Town24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.64
Swindon Town
1.02

Grimsby creates 61% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.72
Swindon Town
1.22

allows per match

Grimsby
0.82
Swindon Town
1.56

finishing

Grimsby+0.20scores more
Swindon Town+0.07on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
76%
Grimsby or Swindon Town
75%
Draw or Swindon Town
48%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
28%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
81%
Grimsby 2+ goals
49%
Grimsby 3+ goals
23%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
64%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
27%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
69%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.82 · 12 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.72 + Swindon Town defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.64

Swindon Town attack 1.22 + Grimsby defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Grimsby scores more
52%
level
25%
Swindon Town scores more
24%

Grimsby at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grimsby vs Swindon Town

Swindon Town beat Grimsby 3-0 in League Two on December 7, 2019.

The match was played at Blundell Park in Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire.