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Grimsby vs Rotherham — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
Preview
15:00
Rotherham
Rotherham
11/21/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 16Blundell Park
40%
Grimsby
model favours
40%27%33%
1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Grimsby40%
×Draw27%
Rotherham33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.31
Rotherham
1.17

Grimsby creates 12% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 19 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.24
Rotherham
1.00

allows per match

Grimsby
1.34
Rotherham
1.37

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
67%
Grimsby or Rotherham
73%
Draw or Rotherham
60%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
18%
Rotherham wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
73%
Grimsby 2+ goals
38%
Grimsby 3+ goals
14%
Rotherham 1+ goals
69%
Rotherham 2+ goals
33%
Rotherham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
55%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 141 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.24 + Rotherham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Rotherham attack 1.00 + Grimsby defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Grimsby scores more
40%
level
27%
Rotherham scores more
33%

Grimsby at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Grimsby
DDWLD
Rotherham
WDDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grimsby face Rotherham (League Two)

League Two returns with Grimsby hosting Rotherham. Match starts November 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Grimsby host Rotherham at Blundell Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.