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Grimsby vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Grimsby
Grimsby
Preview
19:45
Oldham
Oldham
12/29/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 22Blundell Park
38%
Oldham
model favours
36%26%38%
1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Grimsby36%
×Draw26%
Oldham38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.32
Oldham
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 28 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.43
Oldham
1.29

allows per match

Grimsby
1.43
Oldham
1.21

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
62%
Grimsby or Oldham
74%
Draw or Oldham
64%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
16%
Oldham wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
73%
Grimsby 2+ goals
38%
Grimsby 3+ goals
15%
Oldham 1+ goals
74%
Oldham 2+ goals
39%
Oldham 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
49%
Oldham (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 54 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.43 + Oldham defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Oldham attack 1.29 + Grimsby defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Grimsby scores more
36%
level
26%
Oldham scores more
38%

Oldham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Oldham outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Grimsby
Defensively solid
Oldham
Defensively solid
52%Possession48%
66%Pass accuracy63%
11.8Shots12.1
1.63xGBiggest gap0.95
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GrimsbyOldham

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Grimsby
DWLDW
Oldham
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grimsby vs Oldham — Match Preview

Grimsby face Oldham on December 29, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Grimsby host Oldham at Blundell Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.