Grimsby 0–2 Newport County: Result & Stats

Grimsby

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Newport County

P. Amond 45+1' (pen)

S. Twine 25'

12/8/2020

League Two · Round 12Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Grimsby60%

×Draw22%

Newport County18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrimsbyExpected goals in this matchNewport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.94

Grimsby

1.92

Newport County

0.94

Grimsby creates 104% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.72

creates per match

1.05

0.82

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Grimsby

1.72

Newport County

1.05

allows per match

Grimsby

0.82

Newport County

2.13

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Grimsby+0.20scores more

Newport County-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Newport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw

82%

Grimsby or Newport County

78%

Draw or Newport County

40%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+

36%

Newport County wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals

85%

Grimsby 2+ goals

57%

Grimsby 3+ goals

30%

Newport County 1+ goals

61%

Newport County 2+ goals

24%

Newport County 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)

77%

Newport County (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.82 · 12 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.13 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.72 + Newport County defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.92

Newport County attack 1.05 + Grimsby defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Grimsby scores more

60%

level

22%

Newport County scores more

18%

Grimsby at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

S. Twine

Newport County · M

8.3

Match Events

24'

Luke Hendrie

25'

S. Twine

45+1'

P. AmondPenalty

46'

46'

50'

52'

66'

67'

T. Abrahams← K. Ellison

67'

S. Bennett← J. Labadie

71'

G. Williams← O. Edwards

75'

J. Starbuck← M. Gibson

84'

J. Morton← T. Taylor

84'

J. Devitt← P. Amond

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrimsbyNewport

Overview

58%Possession42%

4Total Shots11

3Corners4

20Fouls7

Shots

4Total Shots11

2On Target4

1Off Target7

1Blocked0

2Inside Box6

2Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

461Total Passes323

352Accurate Passes228

76%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1