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Grimsby vs Harrogate Town — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town
12/23/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 23Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Grimsby39%
×Draw27%
Harrogate Town34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.33
Harrogate Town
1.21

Grimsby creates 10% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 138 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.23
Harrogate Town
1.11

allows per match

Grimsby
1.30
Harrogate Town
1.44

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par
Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Harrogate Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
66%
Grimsby or Harrogate Town
73%
Draw or Harrogate Town
61%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
18%
Harrogate Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
74%
Grimsby 2+ goals
38%
Grimsby 3+ goals
15%
Harrogate Town 1+ goals
70%
Harrogate Town 2+ goals
34%
Harrogate Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
54%
Harrogate Town (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 158 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.23 + Harrogate Town defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Harrogate Town attack 1.11 + Grimsby defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Grimsby scores more
39%
level
27%
Harrogate Town scores more
34%

Grimsby at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Grimsby 1–2 Harrogate Town

Harrogate Town beat Grimsby 2-1 in League Two on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Blundell Park in Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire.