Grimsby 1–2 Harrogate Town: Result & Stats

Grimsby

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Harrogate Town

J. Tilley 26'

J. Muldoon 43', 25'

10/20/2020

League Two · Round 7Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Grimsby62%

×Draw21%

Harrogate Town17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrimsbyExpected goals in this matchHarrogate Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.97

Grimsby

2.04

Harrogate Town

0.97

Grimsby creates 110% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.72

creates per match

1.13

0.82

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Grimsby

1.72

Harrogate Town

1.13

allows per match

Grimsby

0.82

Harrogate Town

2.35

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

Grimsby+0.20scores more

Harrogate Town-0.46scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Harrogate Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw

83%

Grimsby or Harrogate Town

79%

Draw or Harrogate Town

38%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+

38%

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals

87%

Grimsby 2+ goals

60%

Grimsby 3+ goals

33%

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

62%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

25%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)

78%

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.82 · 12 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.35 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.72 + Harrogate Town defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.04

Harrogate Town attack 1.13 + Grimsby defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Grimsby scores more

62%

level

21%

Harrogate Town scores more

17%

Grimsby at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Muldoon

Harrogate Town · F

8.0

Match Events

7'

K. Bennett← O. Edwards

25'

J. Muldoon↳ G. Thomson

26'

J. Tilley↳ K. Bennett

42'

43'

45'

48'

52'

56'

61'

68'

70'

73'

75'

84'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrimsbyHarrogate

Overview

53%Possession47%

6Total Shots15

1Corners0

18Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots15

1On Target6

4Off Target7

1Blocked2

1Inside Box11

5Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

455Total Passes386

316Accurate Passes231

69%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls12

5Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1