Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Grimsby vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
Preview
14:00
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
9/19/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Blundell Park
Big match
50%
Grimsby
model favours
50%24%26%

Grimsby sit 6, Crawley Town 22 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Grimsby50%
×Draw24%
Crawley Town26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.71
Crawley Town
1.18

Grimsby creates 45% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.62
Crawley Town
1.51

allows per match

Grimsby
0.85
Crawley Town
1.80

finishing

Grimsby+0.38scores more
Crawley Town-0.59scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
74%
Grimsby or Crawley Town
76%
Draw or Crawley Town
50%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
27%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
82%
Grimsby 2+ goals
51%
Grimsby 3+ goals
24%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
69%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
33%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
65%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Crawley Town defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Crawley Town attack 1.51 + Grimsby defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Grimsby scores more
50%
level
24%
Crawley Town scores more
26%

Grimsby at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Grimsby
Attack-heavy
Crawley Town
Balanced
52%Possession54%
68%Pass accuracy71%
12.6Shots12.7
1.65xGBiggest gap1.41
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GrimsbyCrawley Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Grimsby
2
Draws
3
Crawley Town
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 60%
2–03–00–22–31–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Grimsby
DDWLD
Town
DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grimsby vs Crawley Town — Match Preview

Grimsby face Crawley Town on September 19, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Grimsby host Crawley Town at Blundell Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.