Grimsby 3–0 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Grimsby

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Crawley Town

R. Taylor 85'

G. Holohan 52'

A. Driscoll-Glennon 4'

10/8/2022

League Two · Round 14Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Grimsby52%

×Draw24%

Crawley Town24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrimsbyExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.12

Grimsby

1.75

Crawley Town

1.12

Grimsby creates 56% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.72

creates per match

1.42

0.82

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Grimsby

1.72

Crawley Town

1.42

allows per match

Grimsby

0.82

Crawley Town

1.79

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

Grimsby+0.20scores more

Crawley Town-0.57scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw

76%

Grimsby or Crawley Town

76%

Draw or Crawley Town

48%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+

29%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals

83%

Grimsby 2+ goals

52%

Grimsby 3+ goals

25%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

67%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

31%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)

68%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.82 · 12 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.72 + Crawley Town defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.75

Crawley Town attack 1.42 + Grimsby defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Grimsby scores more

52%

level

24%

Crawley Town scores more

24%

Grimsby at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

A. Driscoll-Glennon

Grimsby · D

8.3

Match Events

4'

Joel Lynch

4'

A. Driscoll-Glennon

52'

G. Holohan↳ O. Khan

53'

J. Tilley← C. Chukwuemeka

54'

J. Davis← J. Lynch

62'

K. Green← J. Maguire-Drew

81'

Brendan Kiernan

82'

B. Wells← J. Powell

82'

L. Francillette← T. Craig

84'

N. Maher← O. Khan

84'

A. Pepple← B. Kiernan

85'

R. Taylor↳ A. Pepple

90+3'

Ryan Taylor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrimsbyCrawley

Overview

38%Possession62%

13Total Shots10

6Corners10

14Fouls6

Shots

13Total Shots10

6On Target2

2Off Target4

5Blocked4

9Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

260Total Passes426

144Accurate Passes318

55%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1