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GrIFK vs KaaPo — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

GrIFK
GrIFK
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
KaaPo
KaaPo
6/20/2018Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 9Kauniaisten Keskuskenttä (Kauniainen (Grankulla))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

GrIFK44%
×Draw22%
KaaPo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GrIFK
1.90
KaaPo
1.64

GrIFK creates 16% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 53 away

creates per match

GrIFK
1.89
KaaPo
1.57

allows per match

GrIFK
1.70
KaaPo
1.91

finishing

GrIFK+0.00on par
KaaPo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GrIFK ↓

KaaPo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

GrIFK or draw
66%
GrIFK or KaaPo
78%
Draw or KaaPo
56%

Winning margin

GrIFK wins by 2+
24%
KaaPo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

GrIFK 1+ goals
85%
GrIFK 2+ goals
56%
GrIFK 3+ goals
29%
KaaPo 1+ goals
81%
KaaPo 2+ goals
49%
KaaPo 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

GrIFK (draw refunded)
57%
KaaPo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GrIFK at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.70 · 70 matches

KaaPo away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.91 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GrIFK attack 1.89 + KaaPo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.90

KaaPo attack 1.57 + GrIFK defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

GrIFK scores more
44%
level
22%
KaaPo scores more
34%

GrIFK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "GrIFK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: GrIFK 3–2 KaaPo

GrIFK beat KaaPo 3-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on June 20, 2018.

The match was played at Kauniaisten Keskuskenttä (Kauniainen (Grankulla)).