Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gretna 2008 vs Celtic II — League #731 2026

Gretna 2008
Gretna 2008
Preview
14:00
Celtic II
Celtic II
9/19/2026League #731League #731 · Regular Season
55%
Gretna 2008
model favours
55%20%26%

Gretna 2008 and Celtic II have never met before

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
76%
over 2.5 goals
72%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gretna 200855%
×Draw20%
Celtic II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gretna 2008
2.38
Celtic II
1.60

Gretna 2008 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gretna 2008
2.75
Celtic II
1.20

allows per match

Gretna 2008
2.00
Celtic II
2.00

finishing

Gretna 2008+0.00on par
Celtic II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gretna 2008 ↓

Celtic II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Gretna 2008 or draw
74%
Gretna 2008 or Celtic II
80%
Draw or Celtic II
45%

Winning margin

Gretna 2008 wins by 2+
34%
Celtic II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gretna 2008 1+ goals
91%
Gretna 2008 2+ goals
68%
Gretna 2008 3+ goals
42%
Celtic II 1+ goals
80%
Celtic II 2+ goals
47%
Celtic II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Gretna 2008 (draw refunded)
68%
Celtic II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gretna 2008 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Celtic II away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gretna 2008 attack 2.75 + Celtic II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Celtic II attack 1.20 + Gretna 2008 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gretna 2008 scores more
55%
level
20%
Celtic II scores more
26%

Gretna 2008 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gretna 2008 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
2008
LLLDL
II
LLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gretna 2008 face Celtic II (League #731)

League #731 returns with Gretna 2008 hosting Celtic II. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.