Gremio 1–1 Internacional: Result & Stats | Serie A

Gremio

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Internacional

Anthoni 38' (OG)

Alan Patrick 66' (pen)

4/20/2025

Serie A · Round 5Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Gremio42%

×Draw26%

Internacional32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchInternacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.19

Gremio

1.41

Internacional

1.19

Gremio creates 18% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

1.54

creates per match

1.31

1.07

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Gremio

1.54

Internacional

1.31

allows per match

Gremio

1.07

Internacional

1.28

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Gremio+0.11scores more

Internacional-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Internacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

68%

Gremio or Internacional

74%

Draw or Internacional

58%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

20%

Internacional wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

76%

Gremio 2+ goals

41%

Gremio 3+ goals

17%

Internacional 1+ goals

70%

Internacional 2+ goals

33%

Internacional 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

57%

Internacional (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.07 · 23 matches

Internacional away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.28 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.54 + Internacional defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41

Internacional attack 1.31 + Gremio defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gremio scores more

42%

level

26%

Internacional scores more

32%

Gremio at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Tiago Volpi

Gremio · G

8.0

Match Events

8'

Vitao

16'

Alan Patrick

17'

Roger Machado

20'

24'

28'

29'

30'

Walter Kannemann← Wagner Leonardo

38'

AnthoniOwn goal

57'

M. Monsalve

61'

Gabriel Carvalho← Wesley

61'

Bruno Tabata← Vitinho

66'

Alan PatrickPenalty

69'

A. Aravena← Edenilson

72'

M. Villasanti

73'

R. Borre← E. Valencia

73'

Ronaldo← Bruno Henrique

78'

Camilo Reijers← M. Villasanti

78'

F. Cristaldo← M. Monsalve

78'

81'

88'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioInternacional

Overview

40%Possession60%

8Total Shots14

1.47Expected Goals (xG)2.16

3Corners7

15Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots14

2On Target5

4Off Target5

2Blocked4

7Inside Box10

1Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

281Total Passes427

187Accurate Passes344

67%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

-0.68Goals Prevented-0.68

Discipline

15Fouls14

7Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1