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Gremio U17 vs Palmeiras U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Gremio U17
Gremio U17
Preview
20:00
Palmeiras U17
Palmeiras U17
9/8/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 16
41%
Gremio U17
model favours
41%22%38%

Palmeiras U17 score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
71%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gremio U1741%
×Draw22%
Palmeiras U1738%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio U17
1.91
Palmeiras U17
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gremio U17
2.60
Palmeiras U17
2.06

allows per match

Gremio U17
1.60
Palmeiras U17
1.22

finishing

Gremio U17+0.00on par
Palmeiras U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 71No: 2971%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio U17 ↓

Palmeiras U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Gremio U17 or draw
62%
Gremio U17 or Palmeiras U17
78%
Draw or Palmeiras U17
59%

Winning margin

Gremio U17 wins by 2+
22%
Palmeiras U17 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Gremio U17 1+ goals
85%
Gremio U17 2+ goals
57%
Gremio U17 3+ goals
30%
Palmeiras U17 1+ goals
84%
Palmeiras U17 2+ goals
54%
Palmeiras U17 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Gremio U17 (draw refunded)
52%
Palmeiras U17 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio U17 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Palmeiras U17 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio U17 attack 2.60 + Palmeiras U17 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.91

Palmeiras U17 attack 2.06 + Gremio U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gremio U17 scores more
41%
level
22%
Palmeiras U17 scores more
38%

Gremio U17 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gremio U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Gremio U17 score first in only 13% of matches
  • 88% of Palmeiras U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (73% and 88% over 2.5)
  • Palmeiras U17 have scored in 12 games running
  • Both teams score in 81% of Palmeiras U17’s matches
  • 73% of Gremio U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
LLLWW
U17
DLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gremio U17 host Palmeiras U17

September 8, 2026: Gremio U17 take on Palmeiras U17 in Brasileiro U17. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.