Gremio U17 vs Internacional U17

Gremio U17

Preview

20:00

Internacional U17

8/25/2026

Brasileiro U17 · Round 14

60%

Gremio U17

model favours

60%19%21%

Gremio U17 score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

72%

over 2.5 goals

68%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Gremio U1760%

×Draw19%

Internacional U1721%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gremio U17Expected goals in this matchInternacional U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.38

Gremio U17

2.40

Internacional U17

1.38

Gremio U17 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

2.60

creates per match

1.15

1.60

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Gremio U17

2.60

Internacional U17

1.15

allows per match

Gremio U17

1.60

Internacional U17

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio U17+0.00on par

Internacional U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio U17 ↓

Internacional U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Gremio U17 or draw

79%

Gremio U17 or Internacional U17

81%

Draw or Internacional U17

40%

Winning margin

Gremio U17 wins by 2+

38%

Internacional U17 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gremio U17 1+ goals

91%

Gremio U17 2+ goals

69%

Gremio U17 3+ goals

42%

Internacional U17 1+ goals

75%

Internacional U17 2+ goals

40%

Internacional U17 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Gremio U17 (draw refunded)

74%

Internacional U17 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio U17 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Internacional U17 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio U17 attack 2.60 + Internacional U17 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.40

Internacional U17 attack 1.15 + Gremio U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gremio U17 scores more

60%

level

19%

Internacional U17 scores more

21%

Gremio U17 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gremio U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 80% of Internacional U17’s matches
Internacional U17 win just 10% of their away games
73% of Gremio U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Both sides lean high-scoring (73% and 60% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U17

LLLWW

U17

LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff