Gremio Prudente U20 vs RB Bragantino U20

Gremio Prudente U20

Preview

18:00

RB Bragantino U20

8/14/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 12

53%

RB Bragantino U20

model favours

24%23%53%

RB Bragantino U20 have scored in 21 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

58%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Gremio Prudente U2024%

×Draw23%

RB Bragantino U2053%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gremio Prudente U20Expected goals in this matchRB Bragantino U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.84

Gremio Prudente U20

1.16

RB Bragantino U20

1.84

RB Bragantino U20 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

1.57

creates per match

2.54

1.14

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Gremio Prudente U20

1.57

RB Bragantino U20

2.54

allows per match

Gremio Prudente U20

1.14

RB Bragantino U20

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio Prudente U20+0.00on par

RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Prudente U20 ↓

RB Bragantino U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Gremio Prudente U20 or draw

47%

Gremio Prudente U20 or RB Bragantino U20

77%

Draw or RB Bragantino U20

76%

Winning margin

Gremio Prudente U20 wins by 2+

9%

RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Gremio Prudente U20 1+ goals

69%

Gremio Prudente U20 2+ goals

32%

Gremio Prudente U20 3+ goals

11%

RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals

84%

RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals

55%

RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Gremio Prudente U20 (draw refunded)

31%

RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Prudente U20 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

RB Bragantino U20 away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Prudente U20 attack 1.57 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.16

RB Bragantino U20 attack 2.54 + Gremio Prudente U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gremio Prudente U20 scores more

24%

level

23%

RB Bragantino U20 scores more

53%

RB Bragantino U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "RB Bragantino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

When RB Bragantino U20 score first, they win 100% of the time
71% of RB Bragantino U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Gremio Prudente U20 sit 20, RB Bragantino U20 3 in the table
33% of RB Bragantino U20’s goals come after the 75th minute
Gremio Prudente U20 and RB Bragantino U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

DWLWW

U20

DWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff