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Greifswalder FC vs Magdeburg II — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
Preview
12:00
Magdeburg II
Magdeburg II
4/18/2027Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 30
Big match
42%
Magdeburg II
model favours
34%23%42%

Greifswalder FC score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Greifswalder FC34%
×Draw23%
Magdeburg II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greifswalder FC
1.51
Magdeburg II
1.70

Magdeburg II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 5 away

creates per match

Greifswalder FC
1.42
Magdeburg II
2.40

allows per match

Greifswalder FC
1.00
Magdeburg II
1.60

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par
Magdeburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

Magdeburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw
58%
Greifswalder FC or Magdeburg II
77%
Draw or Magdeburg II
66%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
16%
Magdeburg II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
78%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
44%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
19%
Magdeburg II 1+ goals
82%
Magdeburg II 2+ goals
51%
Magdeburg II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
45%
Magdeburg II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Magdeburg II away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 1.42 + Magdeburg II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.51

Magdeburg II attack 2.40 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more
34%
level
23%
Magdeburg II scores more
42%

Magdeburg II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 91% of Greifswalder FC’s matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Greifswalder FC 2 vs Magdeburg II 4

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
DLDWW
II
DWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Greifswalder FC face Magdeburg II (Regionalliga - Nordost)

Regionalliga - Nordost returns with Greifswalder FC hosting Magdeburg II. Match starts April 18, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.