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Greifswalder FC vs Luckenwalde — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
Preview
12:00
Luckenwalde
Luckenwalde
9/20/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 10
Big match
39%
Greifswalder FC
model favours
39%28%33%

Greifswalder FC score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Greifswalder FC39%
×Draw28%
Luckenwalde33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greifswalder FC
1.21
Luckenwalde
1.10

Greifswalder FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 5 away

creates per match

Greifswalder FC
1.42
Luckenwalde
1.20

allows per match

Greifswalder FC
1.00
Luckenwalde
1.00

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par
Luckenwalde+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

Luckenwalde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw
67%
Greifswalder FC or Luckenwalde
72%
Draw or Luckenwalde
61%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
17%
Luckenwalde wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
70%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
34%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
12%
Luckenwalde 1+ goals
67%
Luckenwalde 2+ goals
30%
Luckenwalde 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
54%
Luckenwalde (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Luckenwalde away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 1.42 + Luckenwalde defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Luckenwalde attack 1.20 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more
39%
level
28%
Luckenwalde scores more
33%

Greifswalder FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 91% of Greifswalder FC’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings
  • Greifswalder FC sit 2, Luckenwalde 13 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
DLDWW
Luckenwalde
DDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Greifswalder FC host Luckenwalde

September 20, 2026: Greifswalder FC take on Luckenwalde in Regionalliga - Nordost. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.