Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Greifswalder FC vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
Preview
13:00
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
10/25/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 14
47%
Greifswalder FC
model favours
47%24%30%

Greifswalder FC score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Greifswalder FC47%
×Draw24%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greifswalder FC
1.71
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
1.32

Greifswalder FC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 11 away

creates per match

Greifswalder FC
1.42
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
1.64

allows per match

Greifswalder FC
1.00
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
2.00

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw
70%
Greifswalder FC or FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
76%
Draw or FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
53%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
25%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
82%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
51%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
24%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 1+ goals
73%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 2+ goals
38%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
61%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 1.42 + FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt attack 1.64 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more
47%
level
24%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt scores more
30%

Greifswalder FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 91% of Greifswalder FC’s matches
  • Greifswalder FC and FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
DLDWW
Erfurt
WLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Greifswalder FC face FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt (Regionalliga - Nordost)

Regionalliga - Nordost returns with Greifswalder FC hosting FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt. Match starts October 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.