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Greifswalder FC vs Chemnitzer FC — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
Preview
12:00
Chemnitzer FC
Chemnitzer FC
5/16/2027Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 33
Big match
40%
Greifswalder FC
model favours
40%30%29%

Greifswalder FC score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Greifswalder FC40%
×Draw30%
Chemnitzer FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greifswalder FC
1.12
Chemnitzer FC
0.91

Greifswalder FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 11 away

creates per match

Greifswalder FC
1.42
Chemnitzer FC
0.82

allows per match

Greifswalder FC
1.00
Chemnitzer FC
0.82

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par
Chemnitzer FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

Chemnitzer FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw
71%
Greifswalder FC or Chemnitzer FC
70%
Draw or Chemnitzer FC
60%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
17%
Chemnitzer FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
67%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
31%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
10%
Chemnitzer FC 1+ goals
60%
Chemnitzer FC 2+ goals
23%
Chemnitzer FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
58%
Chemnitzer FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Chemnitzer FC away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 1.42 + Chemnitzer FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.12

Chemnitzer FC attack 0.82 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more
40%
level
30%
Chemnitzer FC scores more
29%

Greifswalder FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 91% of Greifswalder FC’s matches
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
FC
DLDWW
FC
LWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Greifswalder FC face Chemnitzer FC (Regionalliga - Nordost)

Regionalliga - Nordost returns with Greifswalder FC hosting Chemnitzer FC. Match starts May 16, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.