Greifswalder FC vs Altglienicke

Greifswalder FC

Preview

12:00

Altglienicke

8/9/2026

Regionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 4

44%

Altglienicke

model favours

31%25%44%

Greifswalder FC score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Greifswalder FC31%

×Draw25%

Altglienicke44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greifswalder FCExpected goals in this matchAltglienicke

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.50

Greifswalder FC

1.21

Altglienicke

1.50

Altglienicke creates 24% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 5 away

1.42

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Greifswalder FC

1.42

Altglienicke

2.00

allows per match

Greifswalder FC

1.00

Altglienicke

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Altglienicke+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

Altglienicke →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw

56%

Greifswalder FC or Altglienicke

75%

Draw or Altglienicke

69%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+

13%

Altglienicke wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals

70%

Greifswalder FC 2+ goals

34%

Greifswalder FC 3+ goals

12%

Altglienicke 1+ goals

78%

Altglienicke 2+ goals

44%

Altglienicke 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)

41%

Altglienicke (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Altglienicke away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 1.42 + Altglienicke defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Altglienicke attack 2.00 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more

31%

level

25%

Altglienicke scores more

44%

Altglienicke at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Altglienicke will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 91% of Greifswalder FC’s matches
Greifswalder FC and Altglienicke have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

FC

DLDWW

Altglienicke

LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff