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Grei W vs Start W — 1. Division Women 2022

Grei W
Grei W
Preview
13:00
Start W
Start W
8/2/20261. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 12
43%
Start W
model favours
34%23%43%
1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Grei W34%
×Draw23%
Start W43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grei W
1.52
Start W
1.74

Start W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Grei W
1.61
Start W
1.31

allows per match

Grei W
2.17
Start W
1.44

finishing

Grei W+0.00on par
Start W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grei W ↓

Start W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Grei W or draw
57%
Grei W or Start W
77%
Draw or Start W
66%

Winning margin

Grei W wins by 2+
16%
Start W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Grei W 1+ goals
78%
Grei W 2+ goals
45%
Grei W 3+ goals
20%
Start W 1+ goals
82%
Start W 2+ goals
52%
Start W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Grei W (draw refunded)
44%
Start W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grei W at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

Start W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grei W attack 1.61 + Start W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Start W attack 1.31 + Grei W defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Grei W scores more
34%
level
23%
Start W scores more
43%

Start W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Start W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
WLLLD
W
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grei W face Start W (1. Division Women)

1. Division Women returns with Grei W hosting Start W. Match starts August 2, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.