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Grei W vs Frigg Oslo FK W — 1. Division Women 2022

Grei W
Grei W
Preview
12:00
Frigg Oslo FK W
Frigg Oslo FK W
10/18/20261. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 21
61%
Grei W
model favours
61%20%18%
2–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Grei W61%
×Draw20%
Frigg Oslo FK W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grei W
2.14
Frigg Oslo FK W
1.08

Grei W creates 98% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

creates per match

Grei W
1.61
Frigg Oslo FK W
0.00

allows per match

Grei W
2.17
Frigg Oslo FK W
2.67

finishing

Grei W+0.00on par
Frigg Oslo FK W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grei W ↓

Frigg Oslo FK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Grei W or draw
82%
Grei W or Frigg Oslo FK W
80%
Draw or Frigg Oslo FK W
39%

Winning margin

Grei W wins by 2+
38%
Frigg Oslo FK W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Grei W 1+ goals
88%
Grei W 2+ goals
63%
Grei W 3+ goals
36%
Frigg Oslo FK W 1+ goals
66%
Frigg Oslo FK W 2+ goals
29%
Frigg Oslo FK W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Grei W (draw refunded)
77%
Frigg Oslo FK W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grei W at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

Frigg Oslo FK W away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grei W attack 1.61 + Frigg Oslo FK W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.14

Frigg Oslo FK W attack 0.00 + Grei W defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Grei W scores more
61%
level
20%
Frigg Oslo FK W scores more
18%

Grei W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Grei W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
WLLLD
W
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grei W face Frigg Oslo FK W (1. Division Women)

1. Division Women returns with Grei W hosting Frigg Oslo FK W. Match starts October 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.