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Green Gully vs South Melbourne — Victoria NPL 2026

Green Gully
Green Gully
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
South Melbourne
South Melbourne
3/26/2022Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 6Morshead Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Green Gully35%
×Draw24%
South Melbourne41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Gully
1.45
South Melbourne
1.59

South Melbourne creates 10% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 89 away

creates per match

Green Gully
1.75
South Melbourne
1.49

allows per match

Green Gully
1.69
South Melbourne
1.15

finishing

Green Gully+0.00on par
South Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Gully ↓

South Melbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Green Gully or draw
59%
Green Gully or South Melbourne
76%
Draw or South Melbourne
65%

Winning margin

Green Gully wins by 2+
16%
South Melbourne wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Green Gully 1+ goals
77%
Green Gully 2+ goals
42%
Green Gully 3+ goals
18%
South Melbourne 1+ goals
80%
South Melbourne 2+ goals
47%
South Melbourne 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Green Gully (draw refunded)
46%
South Melbourne (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Gully at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.69 · 89 matches

South Melbourne away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Gully attack 1.75 + South Melbourne defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.45

South Melbourne attack 1.49 + Green Gully defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Green Gully scores more
35%
level
24%
South Melbourne scores more
41%

South Melbourne at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "South Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Gully vs South Melbourne

South Melbourne beat Green Gully 2-0 in Victoria NPL on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Morshead Park Stadium in Ballarat.