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Green Gully vs Port Melbourne — Victoria NPL 2026

Green Gully
Green Gully
CANC
10:00
Port Melbourne
Port Melbourne
8/20/2021Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 25Green Gully Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Green Gully42%
×Draw23%
Port Melbourne35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Gully
1.77
Port Melbourne
1.59

Green Gully creates 11% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 76 away

creates per match

Green Gully
1.75
Port Melbourne
1.50

allows per match

Green Gully
1.69
Port Melbourne
1.79

finishing

Green Gully+0.00on par
Port Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Gully ↓

Port Melbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Green Gully or draw
65%
Green Gully or Port Melbourne
77%
Draw or Port Melbourne
58%

Winning margin

Green Gully wins by 2+
22%
Port Melbourne wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Green Gully 1+ goals
83%
Green Gully 2+ goals
53%
Green Gully 3+ goals
26%
Port Melbourne 1+ goals
80%
Port Melbourne 2+ goals
47%
Port Melbourne 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Green Gully (draw refunded)
55%
Port Melbourne (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Gully at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.69 · 89 matches

Port Melbourne away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.79 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Gully attack 1.75 + Port Melbourne defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.77

Port Melbourne attack 1.50 + Green Gully defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Green Gully scores more
42%
level
23%
Port Melbourne scores more
35%

Green Gully at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Green Gully will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Green Gully vs Port Melbourne — Match Preview

Green Gully face Port Melbourne on August 20, 2021 in this Victoria NPL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Green Gully host Port Melbourne at Green Gully Reserve.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.