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Green Gully vs Oakleigh Cannons — Victoria NPL 2026

Green Gully
Green Gully
FT
1 – 1
Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
5/18/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 13Green Gully Reserve (Melbourne)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Green Gully31%
×Draw23%
Oakleigh Cannons46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Gully
1.43
Oakleigh Cannons
1.77

Oakleigh Cannons creates 24% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 87 away

creates per match

Green Gully
1.75
Oakleigh Cannons
1.85

allows per match

Green Gully
1.69
Oakleigh Cannons
1.11

finishing

Green Gully+0.00on par
Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Gully ↓

Oakleigh Cannons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Green Gully or draw
54%
Green Gully or Oakleigh Cannons
77%
Draw or Oakleigh Cannons
69%

Winning margin

Green Gully wins by 2+
14%
Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Green Gully 1+ goals
76%
Green Gully 2+ goals
42%
Green Gully 3+ goals
17%
Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
83%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
53%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Green Gully (draw refunded)
41%
Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Gully at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.69 · 89 matches

Oakleigh Cannons away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Gully attack 1.75 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.43

Oakleigh Cannons attack 1.85 + Green Gully defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Green Gully scores more
31%
level
23%
Oakleigh Cannons scores more
46%

Oakleigh Cannons at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Green Gully 1–1 Oakleigh Cannons

Green Gully and Oakleigh Cannons drew 1-1 in Victoria NPL on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Green Gully Reserve (Melbourne).