Green Gully 1–2 Heidelberg United: Result & Stats

Green Gully

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Heidelberg United

8/13/2023

Victoria NPL · Round 25Green Gully Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Green Gully36%

×Draw23%

Heidelberg United41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Green GullyExpected goals in this matchHeidelberg United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.69

Green Gully

1.56

Heidelberg United

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 88 away

1.75

creates per match

1.68

1.70

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Green Gully

1.75

Heidelberg United

1.68

allows per match

Green Gully

1.70

Heidelberg United

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Green Gully+0.00on par

Heidelberg United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Gully ↓

Heidelberg United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Green Gully or draw

59%

Green Gully or Heidelberg United

77%

Draw or Heidelberg United

64%

Winning margin

Green Gully wins by 2+

17%

Heidelberg United wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Green Gully 1+ goals

79%

Green Gully 2+ goals

46%

Green Gully 3+ goals

21%

Heidelberg United 1+ goals

82%

Heidelberg United 2+ goals

50%

Heidelberg United 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Green Gully (draw refunded)

46%

Heidelberg United (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Gully at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.70 · 88 matches

Heidelberg United away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.36 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Gully attack 1.75 + Heidelberg United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.56

Heidelberg United attack 1.68 + Green Gully defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Green Gully scores more

36%

level

23%

Heidelberg United scores more

41%

Heidelberg United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Heidelberg United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff