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Green Gully vs Dandenong City — Victoria NPL 2026

Green Gully
Green Gully
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dandenong City
Dandenong City
3/11/2022Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 4Green Gully Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Green Gully42%
×Draw23%
Dandenong City35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Gully
1.69
Dandenong City
1.52

Green Gully creates 11% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 76 away

creates per match

Green Gully
1.75
Dandenong City
1.34

allows per match

Green Gully
1.69
Dandenong City
1.64

finishing

Green Gully+0.00on par
Dandenong City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Gully ↓

Dandenong City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Green Gully or draw
65%
Green Gully or Dandenong City
77%
Draw or Dandenong City
58%

Winning margin

Green Gully wins by 2+
22%
Dandenong City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Green Gully 1+ goals
82%
Green Gully 2+ goals
50%
Green Gully 3+ goals
24%
Dandenong City 1+ goals
78%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
45%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Green Gully (draw refunded)
55%
Dandenong City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Gully at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.69 · 89 matches

Dandenong City away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.64 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Gully attack 1.75 + Dandenong City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Dandenong City attack 1.34 + Green Gully defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Green Gully scores more
42%
level
23%
Dandenong City scores more
35%

Green Gully at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Green Gully will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Gully vs Dandenong City

Green Gully beat Dandenong City 1-0 in Victoria NPL on March 11, 2022.

The match was played at Green Gully Reserve in Melbourne.