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Green Gully vs Bentleigh Greens — Victoria NPL 2026

Green Gully
Green Gully
FT
1 – 1
Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
6/8/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 16Green Gully Reserve (Melbourne)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Green Gully42%
×Draw23%
Bentleigh Greens35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Gully
1.71
Bentleigh Greens
1.53

Green Gully creates 12% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 63 away

creates per match

Green Gully
1.75
Bentleigh Greens
1.37

allows per match

Green Gully
1.69
Bentleigh Greens
1.67

finishing

Green Gully+0.00on par
Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Gully ↓

Bentleigh Greens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Green Gully or draw
65%
Green Gully or Bentleigh Greens
77%
Draw or Bentleigh Greens
58%

Winning margin

Green Gully wins by 2+
22%
Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Green Gully 1+ goals
82%
Green Gully 2+ goals
51%
Green Gully 3+ goals
24%
Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
78%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
45%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Green Gully (draw refunded)
55%
Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Gully at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.69 · 89 matches

Bentleigh Greens away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.67 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Gully attack 1.75 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.37 + Green Gully defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Green Gully scores more
42%
level
23%
Bentleigh Greens scores more
35%

Green Gully at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Green Gully will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Gully vs Bentleigh Greens

Green Gully and Bentleigh Greens drew 1-1 in Victoria NPL on June 8, 2019.

The match was played at Green Gully Reserve (Melbourne).