Green Buffaloes 1–1 Man Utd Zambia Academy

Green Buffaloes

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Man Utd Zambia Academy

12/9/2023

Super League · Round 15Edwin Imboela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Green Buffaloes40%

×Draw29%

Man Utd Zambia Academy31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Green BuffaloesExpected goals in this matchMan Utd Zambia Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.98

Green Buffaloes

1.17

Man Utd Zambia Academy

0.98

Green Buffaloes creates 19% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 77 away

1.26

creates per match

1.03

0.93

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Green Buffaloes

1.26

Man Utd Zambia Academy

1.03

allows per match

Green Buffaloes

0.93

Man Utd Zambia Academy

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Green Buffaloes+0.00on par

Man Utd Zambia Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Buffaloes ↓

Man Utd Zambia Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Green Buffaloes or draw

69%

Green Buffaloes or Man Utd Zambia Academy

71%

Draw or Man Utd Zambia Academy

60%

Winning margin

Green Buffaloes wins by 2+

17%

Man Utd Zambia Academy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Green Buffaloes 1+ goals

69%

Green Buffaloes 2+ goals

33%

Green Buffaloes 3+ goals

11%

Man Utd Zambia Academy 1+ goals

62%

Man Utd Zambia Academy 2+ goals

26%

Man Utd Zambia Academy 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Green Buffaloes (draw refunded)

57%

Man Utd Zambia Academy (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Buffaloes at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

Man Utd Zambia Academy away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Buffaloes attack 1.26 + Man Utd Zambia Academy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Man Utd Zambia Academy attack 1.03 + Green Buffaloes defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Green Buffaloes scores more

40%

level

29%

Man Utd Zambia Academy scores more

31%

Green Buffaloes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Green Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff