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Green Bay Voyageurs vs Manitoba — USL League Two 2018

Green Bay Voyageurs
Green Bay Voyageurs
PST
22:00
Manitoba
Manitoba
6/28/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 43Capital Credit Union Park (Ashwaubenon, Wisconsin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Green Bay Voyageurs36%
×Draw26%
Manitoba38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Bay Voyageurs
1.33
Manitoba
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00
Manitoba
1.75

allows per match

Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00
Manitoba
1.67

finishing

Green Bay Voyageurs+0.00on par
Manitoba+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Bay Voyageurs ↓

Manitoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Green Bay Voyageurs or draw
62%
Green Bay Voyageurs or Manitoba
74%
Draw or Manitoba
64%

Winning margin

Green Bay Voyageurs wins by 2+
16%
Manitoba wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Green Bay Voyageurs 1+ goals
74%
Green Bay Voyageurs 2+ goals
38%
Green Bay Voyageurs 3+ goals
15%
Manitoba 1+ goals
75%
Manitoba 2+ goals
40%
Manitoba 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Green Bay Voyageurs (draw refunded)
48%
Manitoba (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Bay Voyageurs at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Manitoba away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Bay Voyageurs attack 1.00 + Manitoba defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Manitoba attack 1.75 + Green Bay Voyageurs defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Green Bay Voyageurs scores more
36%
level
26%
Manitoba scores more
38%

Manitoba at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Manitoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Green Bay Voyageurs face Manitoba (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Green Bay Voyageurs hosting Manitoba. Match starts June 28, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Green Bay Voyageurs host Manitoba at Capital Credit Union Park (Ashwaubenon, Wisconsin).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.