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Green Bay Voyageurs vs Des Moines Menace — USL League Two 2018

Green Bay Voyageurs
Green Bay Voyageurs
PST
00:00
Des Moines Menace
Des Moines Menace
7/2/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 46Capital Credit Union Park (Ashwaubenon, Wisconsin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Green Bay Voyageurs22%
×Draw25%
Des Moines Menace53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Bay Voyageurs
0.97
Des Moines Menace
1.64

Des Moines Menace creates 69% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 41 away

creates per match

Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00
Des Moines Menace
2.27

allows per match

Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00
Des Moines Menace
0.93

finishing

Green Bay Voyageurs+0.00on par
Des Moines Menace+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Bay Voyageurs ↓

Des Moines Menace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Green Bay Voyageurs or draw
47%
Green Bay Voyageurs or Des Moines Menace
75%
Draw or Des Moines Menace
78%

Winning margin

Green Bay Voyageurs wins by 2+
8%
Des Moines Menace wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Green Bay Voyageurs 1+ goals
62%
Green Bay Voyageurs 2+ goals
25%
Green Bay Voyageurs 3+ goals
7%
Des Moines Menace 1+ goals
81%
Des Moines Menace 2+ goals
49%
Des Moines Menace 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Green Bay Voyageurs (draw refunded)
30%
Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Bay Voyageurs at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Des Moines Menace away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Bay Voyageurs attack 1.00 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Des Moines Menace attack 2.27 + Green Bay Voyageurs defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Green Bay Voyageurs scores more
22%
level
25%
Des Moines Menace scores more
53%

Des Moines Menace at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Green Bay Voyageurs face Des Moines Menace (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Green Bay Voyageurs hosting Des Moines Menace. Match starts July 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Green Bay Voyageurs host Des Moines Menace at Capital Credit Union Park (Ashwaubenon, Wisconsin).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.