Grbalj 2–1 Mladost Lješkopolje: Result & Stats

Grbalj

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mladost Lješkopolje

3/10/2024

Second League · Round 22Stadion Donja Sutvara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Grbalj42%

×Draw26%

Mladost Lješkopolje32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrbaljExpected goals in this matchMladost Lješkopolje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.22

Grbalj

1.42

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.22

Grbalj creates 16% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 69 away

1.26

creates per match

1.20

1.24

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Grbalj

1.26

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.20

allows per match

Grbalj

1.24

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grbalj+0.00on par

Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grbalj ↓

Mladost Lješkopolje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Grbalj or draw

68%

Grbalj or Mladost Lješkopolje

74%

Draw or Mladost Lješkopolje

58%

Winning margin

Grbalj wins by 2+

20%

Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Grbalj 1+ goals

76%

Grbalj 2+ goals

41%

Grbalj 3+ goals

17%

Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals

70%

Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals

34%

Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Grbalj (draw refunded)

56%

Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grbalj at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.24 · 105 matches

Mladost Lješkopolje away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grbalj attack 1.26 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.20 + Grbalj defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Grbalj scores more

42%

level

26%

Mladost Lješkopolje scores more

32%

Grbalj at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Grbalj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff