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Grbalj vs Iskra — Second League 2019

Grbalj
Grbalj
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Iskra
Iskra
11/18/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 17Stadion Donja Sutvara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Grbalj37%
×Draw28%
Iskra35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grbalj
1.21
Iskra
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 52 away

creates per match

Grbalj
1.26
Iskra
1.08

allows per match

Grbalj
1.24
Iskra
1.17

finishing

Grbalj+0.00on par
Iskra+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grbalj ↓

Iskra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Grbalj or draw
65%
Grbalj or Iskra
72%
Draw or Iskra
63%

Winning margin

Grbalj wins by 2+
16%
Iskra wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Grbalj 1+ goals
70%
Grbalj 2+ goals
34%
Grbalj 3+ goals
12%
Iskra 1+ goals
69%
Iskra 2+ goals
32%
Iskra 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Grbalj (draw refunded)
52%
Iskra (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grbalj at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.24 · 105 matches

Iskra away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grbalj attack 1.26 + Iskra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Iskra attack 1.08 + Grbalj defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Grbalj scores more
37%
level
28%
Iskra scores more
35%

Grbalj at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Grbalj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grbalj 1 – 0 Iskra

Grbalj beat Iskra 1-0 in Second League on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Donja Sutvara in Radanovići.