Grand-Saconnex 3–2 Vevey Sports: Result & Stats

Grand-Saconnex

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Vevey Sports

11/11/2023

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Stade du Blanché

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Grand-Saconnex39%

×Draw24%

Vevey Sports37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grand-SaconnexExpected goals in this matchVevey Sports

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.55

Grand-Saconnex

1.58

Vevey Sports

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 56 away

1.70

creates per match

1.63

1.47

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Grand-Saconnex

1.70

Vevey Sports

1.63

allows per match

Grand-Saconnex

1.47

Vevey Sports

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grand-Saconnex+0.00on par

Vevey Sports+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grand-Saconnex ↓

Vevey Sports →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Grand-Saconnex or draw

63%

Grand-Saconnex or Vevey Sports

76%

Draw or Vevey Sports

61%

Winning margin

Grand-Saconnex wins by 2+

19%

Vevey Sports wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Grand-Saconnex 1+ goals

79%

Grand-Saconnex 2+ goals

47%

Grand-Saconnex 3+ goals

21%

Vevey Sports 1+ goals

79%

Vevey Sports 2+ goals

46%

Vevey Sports 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Grand-Saconnex (draw refunded)

51%

Vevey Sports (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grand-Saconnex at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Vevey Sports away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grand-Saconnex attack 1.70 + Vevey Sports defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vevey Sports attack 1.63 + Grand-Saconnex defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Grand-Saconnex scores more

39%

level

24%

Vevey Sports scores more

37%

Grand-Saconnex at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Grand-Saconnex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff