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Grand Rapids vs South Bend Lions — USL League Two 2018

Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids
PST
21:00
South Bend Lions
South Bend Lions
6/7/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 24Houseman Field (Grand Rapids, Michigan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Grand Rapids59%
×Draw19%
South Bend Lions22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grand Rapids
2.39
South Bend Lions
1.40

Grand Rapids creates 71% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 28 away

creates per match

Grand Rapids
2.14
South Bend Lions
1.50

allows per match

Grand Rapids
1.29
South Bend Lions
2.64

finishing

Grand Rapids+0.00on par
South Bend Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grand Rapids ↓

South Bend Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Grand Rapids or draw
78%
Grand Rapids or South Bend Lions
81%
Draw or South Bend Lions
41%

Winning margin

Grand Rapids wins by 2+
38%
South Bend Lions wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Grand Rapids 1+ goals
91%
Grand Rapids 2+ goals
69%
Grand Rapids 3+ goals
42%
South Bend Lions 1+ goals
75%
South Bend Lions 2+ goals
41%
South Bend Lions 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Grand Rapids (draw refunded)
73%
South Bend Lions (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grand Rapids at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

South Bend Lions away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grand Rapids attack 2.14 + South Bend Lions defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.39

South Bend Lions attack 1.50 + Grand Rapids defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Grand Rapids scores more
59%
level
19%
South Bend Lions scores more
22%

Grand Rapids at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Grand Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grand Rapids face South Bend Lions (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Grand Rapids hosting South Bend Lions. Match starts June 7, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Grand Rapids host South Bend Lions at Houseman Field (Grand Rapids, Michigan).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.