Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Grand Rapids vs Louisville City II — USL League Two 2018

Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids
PST
23:30
Louisville City II
Louisville City II
6/12/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 28Houseman Field (Grand Rapids, Michigan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Grand Rapids49%
×Draw21%
Louisville City II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grand Rapids
2.07
Louisville City II
1.56

Grand Rapids creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Grand Rapids
2.14
Louisville City II
1.83

allows per match

Grand Rapids
1.29
Louisville City II
2.00

finishing

Grand Rapids+0.00on par
Louisville City II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grand Rapids ↓

Louisville City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Grand Rapids or draw
71%
Grand Rapids or Louisville City II
79%
Draw or Louisville City II
51%

Winning margin

Grand Rapids wins by 2+
29%
Louisville City II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Grand Rapids 1+ goals
87%
Grand Rapids 2+ goals
61%
Grand Rapids 3+ goals
34%
Louisville City II 1+ goals
79%
Louisville City II 2+ goals
46%
Louisville City II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Grand Rapids (draw refunded)
63%
Louisville City II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grand Rapids at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Louisville City II away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grand Rapids attack 2.14 + Louisville City II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.07

Louisville City II attack 1.83 + Grand Rapids defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Grand Rapids scores more
49%
level
21%
Louisville City II scores more
29%

Grand Rapids at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Grand Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grand Rapids face Louisville City II (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Grand Rapids hosting Louisville City II. Match starts June 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Grand Rapids host Louisville City II at Houseman Field (Grand Rapids, Michigan).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.