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Grand Rapids vs Cincinnati Dutch Lions — USL League Two 2018

Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids
PST
23:30
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
7/6/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 49Houseman Field (Grand Rapids, Michigan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Grand Rapids49%
×Draw24%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grand Rapids
1.67
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.15

Grand Rapids creates 45% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Grand Rapids
2.14
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.00

allows per match

Grand Rapids
1.29
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.20

finishing

Grand Rapids+0.00on par
Cincinnati Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grand Rapids ↓

Cincinnati Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Grand Rapids or draw
74%
Grand Rapids or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
76%
Draw or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
51%

Winning margin

Grand Rapids wins by 2+
26%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Grand Rapids 1+ goals
81%
Grand Rapids 2+ goals
50%
Grand Rapids 3+ goals
23%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 1+ goals
68%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 2+ goals
32%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Grand Rapids (draw refunded)
65%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grand Rapids at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Cincinnati Dutch Lions away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grand Rapids attack 2.14 + Cincinnati Dutch Lions defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

Cincinnati Dutch Lions attack 1.00 + Grand Rapids defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Grand Rapids scores more
49%
level
24%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions scores more
26%

Grand Rapids at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Grand Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grand Rapids vs Cincinnati Dutch Lions — Match Preview

Grand Rapids face Cincinnati Dutch Lions on July 6, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Grand Rapids host Cincinnati Dutch Lions at Houseman Field (Grand Rapids, Michigan).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.