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Grand Rapids vs Ann Arbor — USL League Two 2018

Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids
PST
23:30
Ann Arbor
Ann Arbor
7/11/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 54Houseman Field (Grand Rapids, Michigan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Grand Rapids43%
×Draw22%
Ann Arbor35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grand Rapids
1.88
Ann Arbor
1.69

Grand Rapids creates 11% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 26 away

creates per match

Grand Rapids
2.14
Ann Arbor
2.08

allows per match

Grand Rapids
1.29
Ann Arbor
1.62

finishing

Grand Rapids+0.00on par
Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grand Rapids ↓

Ann Arbor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Grand Rapids or draw
65%
Grand Rapids or Ann Arbor
78%
Draw or Ann Arbor
57%

Winning margin

Grand Rapids wins by 2+
23%
Ann Arbor wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Grand Rapids 1+ goals
85%
Grand Rapids 2+ goals
56%
Grand Rapids 3+ goals
29%
Ann Arbor 1+ goals
82%
Ann Arbor 2+ goals
50%
Ann Arbor 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Grand Rapids (draw refunded)
55%
Ann Arbor (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grand Rapids at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Ann Arbor away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grand Rapids attack 2.14 + Ann Arbor defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.88

Ann Arbor attack 2.08 + Grand Rapids defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Grand Rapids scores more
43%
level
22%
Ann Arbor scores more
35%

Grand Rapids at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Grand Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Grand Rapids host Ann Arbor

July 11, 2020: Grand Rapids take on Ann Arbor in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Grand Rapids host Ann Arbor at Houseman Field (Grand Rapids, Michigan).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.