Barki Tajik 3–1 Khosilot Farkhor: Result & Stats

Barki Tajik

FT

3 – 1

Khosilot Farkhor

11/14/2016

Vysshaya Liga · Round 18Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Barki Tajik39%

×Draw26%

Khosilot Farkhor34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barki TajikExpected goals in this matchKhosilot Farkhor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.24

Barki Tajik

1.35

Khosilot Farkhor

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

1.07

creates per match

1.52

0.96

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Barki Tajik

1.07

Khosilot Farkhor

1.52

allows per match

Barki Tajik

0.96

Khosilot Farkhor

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barki Tajik+0.00on par

Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barki Tajik ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Barki Tajik or draw

66%

Barki Tajik or Khosilot Farkhor

74%

Draw or Khosilot Farkhor

61%

Winning margin

Barki Tajik wins by 2+

18%

Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Barki Tajik 1+ goals

74%

Barki Tajik 2+ goals

39%

Barki Tajik 3+ goals

15%

Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals

71%

Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals

35%

Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Barki Tajik (draw refunded)

53%

Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barki Tajik at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barki Tajik attack 1.07 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.52 + Barki Tajik defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barki Tajik scores more

39%

level

26%

Khosilot Farkhor scores more

34%

Barki Tajik at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barki Tajik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff