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Granada vs Sevilla W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Granada
Granada
Preview
16:00
Sevilla W
Sevilla W
2/21/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 21Ciudad Deportiva del Granada
Big match
44%
Granada
model favours
44%25%31%

Granada win just 18% against the top half (vs 59% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Granada44%
×Draw25%
Sevilla W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada
1.54
Sevilla W
1.26

Granada creates 22% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 118 away

creates per match

Granada
1.22
Sevilla W
1.01

allows per match

Granada
1.51
Sevilla W
1.86

finishing

Granada+0.00on par
Sevilla W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada ↓

Sevilla W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Granada or draw
69%
Granada or Sevilla W
75%
Draw or Sevilla W
56%

Winning margin

Granada wins by 2+
22%
Sevilla W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Granada 1+ goals
79%
Granada 2+ goals
45%
Granada 3+ goals
20%
Sevilla W 1+ goals
72%
Sevilla W 2+ goals
36%
Sevilla W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Granada (draw refunded)
58%
Sevilla W (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

Sevilla W away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.86 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada attack 1.22 + Sevilla W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sevilla W attack 1.01 + Granada defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Granada scores more
44%
level
25%
Sevilla W scores more
31%

Granada at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Granada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sevilla W win just 16% against the top half (vs 53% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Granada
Balanced
Sevilla W
Balanced
53%Possession48%
73%Pass accuracy72%
14.1ShotsBiggest gap10.2
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GranadaSevilla W

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Granada
1
Draws
2
Sevilla W
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 17%
1–00–22–03–02–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Granada
LLLDW
W
DDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Granada host Sevilla W

February 21, 2027: Granada take on Sevilla W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Granada host Sevilla W at Ciudad Deportiva del Granada.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.