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Granada vs Deportivo Alavés W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Granada
Granada
Preview
16:00
Deportivo Alavés W
Deportivo Alavés W
1/24/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 17Ciudad Deportiva del Granada
56%
Granada
model favours
56%21%23%

Deportivo Alavés W win just 3% against the top half (vs 43% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Granada56%
×Draw21%
Deportivo Alavés W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada
2.04
Deportivo Alavés W
1.22

Granada creates 67% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Granada
1.22
Deportivo Alavés W
0.93

allows per match

Granada
1.51
Deportivo Alavés W
2.87

finishing

Granada+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada ↓

Deportivo Alavés W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Granada or draw
77%
Granada or Deportivo Alavés W
79%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés W
44%

Winning margin

Granada wins by 2+
33%
Deportivo Alavés W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Granada 1+ goals
87%
Granada 2+ goals
60%
Granada 3+ goals
33%
Deportivo Alavés W 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Alavés W 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Alavés W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Granada (draw refunded)
71%
Deportivo Alavés W (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

Deportivo Alavés W away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada attack 1.22 + Deportivo Alavés W defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.04

Deportivo Alavés W attack 0.93 + Granada defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Granada scores more
56%
level
21%
Deportivo Alavés W scores more
23%

Granada at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Granada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Granada and Deportivo Alavés W have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Granada
LLLDW
W
DDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Granada vs Deportivo Alavés W — Match Preview

Granada face Deportivo Alavés W on January 24, 2027 in this Primera División Femenina fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Granada host Deportivo Alavés W at Ciudad Deportiva del Granada.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.